Nuclear Policy News – January 15, 2019

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Top News

U.S., North Korea to hold talks this week seeking ‘interim’ deal: media
Reuters

Nuclear chief says Iran exploring new uranium enrichment
Associated Press

Russia Challenges U.S. Compliance With Nuclear Treaty
Wall Street Journal

What to look for in the upcoming Missile Defense Review
Defense News

How the US and China collaborated to get nuclear material out of Nigeria — and away from terrorist groups
Defense News

 

East Asia

U.S., North Korea to hold talks this week seeking ‘interim’ deal: media
Reuters1/14/19
The United States and North Korea plan to hold high-level talks in Washington this week to discuss a second meeting between their leaders, South Korean media said on Tuesday, as the old enemies seek an “interim” deal to revitalizes nuclear talks. The meeting, led by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and senior North Korean official Kim Yong Chol, is due on Thursday or Friday, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified diplomatic source familiar with the issue.

North Korea’s Nuclear Program Quietly Advances, Pressuring Trump
Bloomberg1/14/19
Kim Jong Un told the world this month that North Korea took steps to stop making nuclear weapons in 2018, a shift from his earlier public statements. The evidence shows production has continued, and possibly expanded. Satellite-imagery analysis and leaked American intelligence suggest North Korea has churned out rockets and warheads as quickly as ever in the year since Kim halted weapons tests, a move that led to his June summit with U.S. President Donald Trump.

North Korea’s Less-Known Military Threat: Biological Weapons
New York Times1/15/19
Pound for pound, the deadliest arms of all time are not nuclear but biological. A single gallon of anthrax, if suitably distributed, could end human life on Earth. Even so, the Trump administration has given scant attention to North Korea’s pursuit of living weapons — a threat that analysts describe as more immediate than its nuclear arms, which Pyongyang and Washington have been discussing for more than six months.

Middle East

Iran admits failed launch of satellite U.S. worries about
ABC News1/15/19
Iran on Tuesday conducted one of at least two satellite launches it plans despite criticism from the United States, but the satellite failed to reach orbit, an official said. The rocket carrying the Payam satellite failed to reach the “necessary speed” in the third stage of its launch, Telecommunications Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi said.

Nuclear chief says Iran exploring new uranium enrichment
Associated Press1/13/19
The head of Iran’s nuclear program said Sunday that the Islamic Republic has begun “preliminary activities for designing” a modern process for 20-percent uranium enrichment for its 50-year-old research reactor in Tehran, signaling new danger for the nuclear deal. Restarting enrichment at that level would mean Iran had withdrawn the 2015 nuclear deal it struck with world powers, an accord that President Donald Trump already pulled America out of in May.

Russia/FSU/Europe

Russia Challenges U.S. Compliance With Nuclear Treaty
Wall Street Journal1/15/19
Russia has stepped up criticism of U.S. efforts to implement a major strategic arms treaty with an unusual message to lawmakers accusing Washington of undermining the agreement. The dispute centers on the procedures the U.S. has devised to shrink its long-range nuclear forces under the New Start treaty, an accord that has regulated the arms race with Moscow since 2011, as the two sides approach a decision on whether to extend the pact.

Russia to Deploy Over 30 Nuclear-Capable ‘Poseidon’ Underwater Drones
The Diplomat1/14/19
The Russian Navy is expected to deploy over 30 ‘Poseidon’ nuclear-capable unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), a source told TASS news agency on January 12. Two Poseidon-carrying submarines are slated to enter service with the Russian Northern Fleet while the other two will join Russia’s Pacific Fleet.

U.S. Nuclear Policy

How the US and China collaborated to get nuclear material out of Nigeria — and away from terrorist groups
Defense News1/14/19
Moving the nuclear material out of Nigeria has been a long-sought goal for the United States and nonproliferation advocates. But the goal has taken on increased importance in recent years with the rise of militant groups in the region, particularly Boko Haram, a group the Pentagon calls a major terrorist concern in the region.

What to look for in the upcoming Missile Defense Review
Defense News1/12/19
The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Review is in the final stages of pre-release, sources tell Defense News, after more than a year of release delays. The review, a congressionally mandated document looking at the status of America’s missile defense capabilities, could be unveiled as soon as the next week, although it has yet to be briefed to Congress, sources say.

Opinion and Analysis

Give Peace With North Korea a Chance, but Remember Plan B
Foreign PolicyPatrick M. Cronin
1/14/19
Keep at diplomacy so long as it is productive. But remember that deterrence and containment of North Korea constitute a proven plan B—provided the U.S.-South Korean alliance remains watertight.

Angles and Dangles: Arihant and the Dilemma of India’s Undersea Nuclear Weapons
War on the RocksYogesh Joshi
1/14/19
With China and Pakistan as nuclear adversaries, India confronts a unique challenge. It has to build up its nuclear capability enough to ensure that Chinese decision-makers fear it, without sending Islamabad into panic and undermining regional stability. This “Goldilocks dilemma” will be difficult to resolve, and India should not leave it to chance — especially as the United States, once South Asia’s chief crisis manager, loses both interest and influence in the region. India should reassure Pakistan by reaffirming its policy of no first use of nuclear weapons and a retaliation-only nuclear doctrine. More importantly, India should rethink its deterrence requirements vis-à-vis China.

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