Nuclear Policy News – December 6, 2018

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Top News

New satellite images reveal activity at unidentified North Korean missile base
CNN

Putin Threatens Arms Race as U.S. Prepares to Exit Nuclear Treaty
Wall Street Journal

Growing split in Seoul over North Korea threatens Korea detente, nuclear talks
Reuters

 

East Asia

New satellite images reveal activity at unidentified North Korean missile base
CNN12/6/18
New satellite images obtained exclusively by CNN reveal North Korea has significantly expanded a key long-range missile base located in the mountainous interior of the country, offering yet another reminder that diplomatic talks with the US have done little to prevent Kim Jong Un from pursuing his promise to mass produce and deploy the existing types of nuclear warheads in his arsenal. The satellite imagery offers evidence that the Yeongjeo-dong missile base and a nearby, previously unreported site remain active and have been continuously upgraded, underscoring the reality of just how far apart Washington and Pyongyang are on the issue of denuclearization despite five months of sporadic talks.

Growing split in Seoul over North Korea threatens Korea detente, nuclear talks
Reuters12/4/18
When Seoul was preparing to open a liaison office in the North Korean city of Kaesong this summer after a decade of virtually no contact with its longtime enemy, South Korean officials had heated debates over whether they should seek approval from Washington. Some top aides to President Moon Jae-in stressed it was an issue for the two Koreas alone and there was no need to involve their U.S. ally, two people with knowledge of the situation told Reuters.

North Korea’s top diplomat arrives in China as countries seek breakthrough in nuclear crisis
The Independent12/6/18
North Korea’s foreign minister arrived in China on Thursday for the start of a hastily-arranged three-day official visit, as all sides gear up for a new round of leaders’ summits aimed at solving the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula. Ri Yong Ho’s trip was only announced on Tuesday, a few days after the Chinese president Xi Jinping held one-on-one talks with Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Argentina.

Russia/FSU/Europe

Putin Threatens Arms Race as U.S. Prepares to Exit Nuclear Treaty
Wall Street Journal12/5/18
Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the prospect of an arms race with the U.S. on Wednesday in response to Washington’s warning it could suspend a Cold War-era treaty that prohibits intermediate and shorter-range nuclear missiles. The end of the pact would be the latest dent to U.S.-Russia relations and severely undermine the decades-old nuclear-arms control architecture built up during the Cold War.

Multilateral Arms Control

U.N. adopts Japan’s anti-nuke resolution but U.S. abstains
The Japan Times12/6/18
The U.N. General Assembly endorsed a Japanese anti-nuclear resolution by a wide margin on Wednesday, but the United States abstained in a shift of position from the previous year. The U.N. organ also adopted an Austria-led resolution calling on member countries to ratify a landmark treaty banning nuclear weapons at an early date, the first approval of the motion this year. The ban treaty was first adopted last summer.

Opinion and Analysis

North Korea, US ‘Left of Launch’ Cyber Capabilities, and Deterrence
The DiplomatAnkit Panda
12/6/18
U.S. “left of launch” cyber capabilities may have unexpected and undesirable consequences on crisis stability.

Who Will Prevent the Next India-Pakistan War?
Defense OneHannah Haegeland
12/4/18
[A]s U.S.-Pakistan relations deteriorate, Chinese influence in Pakistan grows — as does Beijing’s economic and geostrategic stakes in maintaining stability in the region. Both U.S. and Chinese action may be necessary to walk the region back from a nuclear brink, and so U.S. leaders should adapt to changed circumstances by working with Chinese and other counterparts to shape co-management mechanisms.

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