Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / CommentaryThe Uncertain Future of U.S.-Russia Arms ControlByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished Feb 23, 2024Time is running out for the United States and Russia to revive cooperation on arms control before the expiration of New START in 2026. Despite efforts from the Biden administration to kickstart progress, Russia remains an unwilling partner for the foreseeable future.
Analysis / CommentaryThinking about the Unthinkable: Five Nuclear Weapons Issues to Address in 2024ByKelsey HartiganPublished Feb 23, 2024The United States needs to address five key nuclear weapons challenges in 2024. Managing these challenges will require leadership and careful attention from the highest levels—a commodity that will no doubt be in short supply in 2024.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityRedefining the Nuclear Equation: Modernization and Strategic Wisdom in India-China DynamicsByAnkit KPublished Feb 19, 2024Given the intricate interconnection of modern geopolitics, emerging technology and changing military strategy, a longstanding assumption about numerical superiority being an effective deterrent can prove to be obsolete in the context of nuclear dynamics between India and China.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Deterrence Trilemma: South Asia’s Nuclear Landscape in 2035ByDiya AshtakalaPublished Feb 2, 2024This article aims to fill a critical analytical gap regarding the impact of China’s expected nuclear buildup by laying out the current South Asia nuclear landscape.
Analysis Information Pollution and What It Means for Arms ControlByJoseph RodgersPublished Jan 29, 2024Over the past decade, Russia has stepped up its disinformation campaigns to erode trust in arms control. Russian disinformation campaigns have served as a low-cost tactic for Moscow to spread confusion and distrust in the United States and other Western democracies.
Analysis / CommentaryChina’s Waterlogged Missiles Don’t MatterByHeather WilliamsPublished Jan 29, 2024While recent reports of widespread corruption in China’s Strategic Rocket Force have rightly raised questions about the reliability of their nuclear forces, U.S. policymakers should not stray from current strategic plans and efforts to advance risk reduction with Beijing.
Analysis / ReportDeter and Divide: Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Jan 11, 2024Russia’s nuclear threats have underpinned each stage of the war in Ukraine as Putin attempts to deter and divide NATO support. However, if Russia faces battlefield setbacks, its nuclear threats could intensify, testing NATO’s resolve.
Analysis / CommentaryThe Israel-Hamas Conflict: Implications for Nuclear Security in the RegionByDoreen HorschigPublished Jan 11, 2024The Israel-Hamas conflict strains Israel-Iran ties, impacting regional nuclear dynamics. It may strengthen Israel’s resolve to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, prompt Iran’s nuclear acceleration, and hinder U.S.-Iran diplomacy.
Analysis / CommentaryHow to Get Away with a Nuclear TestByHeather WilliamsPublished Nov 17, 2023If Russia does return to nuclear testing, Putin will have assumed that the international community will be silent or divided on the issue—essentially, he would be betting that Russia can get away with it. But a return to nuclear testing, a well-recognized taboo, could backfire for Moscow.